Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.------------------------
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying,
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus.
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China.
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak.
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing.
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."------------------------
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely.
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.------------------------
|Public holidays||Labour Day||1st May, Wednesday|
|Cinco De Mayo||5th May, Sunday (Not Observed)|
|Mother's Day||12th May, Sunday (Not Observed)|
|Vesak Day||19th May, Sunday (Observed: 20th May, Monday)|
|Every Sunday||Music||Jazz Jam Sessions||Cask and Bangers||Free||9pm|
|Till 12 May||Culinary; Festival||WGS 2019: Sustainability in the Gastronomy World||Various||Various||Schedule here|
|Family; Theatre||The Very Hungry Caterpillar and Other Eric Carle Favourites||Victoria Theatre||From $18||Various Showtimes|
|Social||Sparks Connection||Various||From $39.90||Various|
|Till 25 May||Workshop||Teochew Classes for Beginners||Sakae Building||$239.38||9am|
|Till 8 Jun||Musical||The Phantom of the Opera||Sands Theatre at Marina Bay Sands||From $75||Various Showtimes|
|Every Fri - Sun; Till 30 June||Exhibition; Family||22 Stories||Ayer Rajah Community Club||From $38||Fri - 5.30pm - 9.30pm; Sat & Sun - 10am-2pm & 5.30pm - 9.30pm|
|Till 27th Jul||Music||Singapore Rhapsodies at National Museum||National Museum of Singapore||Free||Various Timings|
|Till 22 Sep||Exhibition||Wonderland||ArtScience Museum||$18||10am - 7pm|
|01||Wednesday||Tour||Istana Open House||Istana Park||$2||8.30am - 6pm|
|Astronomy||Journey to Space||Istana Park||Free||9am|
|02||Thursday||Concert||Atul Khatri - Live in Singapore||SOTA Concert Hall||From $50||8pm|
|Karaoke||LIVE Rockstar Karaoke||River Valley Road||Free||6pm|
|Workshop||Millennialship Workshop||Clarke Quay||Free||7pm - 9.30pm|
|03||Friday||Concert||Troye Sivan: ‘The Bloom Tour’ Singapore||The Star Theatre||From 98||8pm|
|Concert||Bence Szepesi, Clarinet||Esplanade Recital Studio||$38||7.30pm|
|Concert||RHYTHMS, RITES AND RENEWALS||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $18||7.30pm|
|Festival||JustCo @ 20 Collyer Quay Open House||Collyer Quay||Free||11am|
|04||Saturday||Concert||Adam Gyorgy, Improvisations 2019||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $18||7.30pm|
|Concert||Jacintha Is Her Name Concert||Esplanade Recital Studio||$45||8pm|
|Concert||Songs At Twilight||Botanic Gardens||Free||6pm - 7pm|
|Concert||Very Venetian: Various Vivaldi Concerti||The Theatre Practice||Free||8pm|
|Concert||FIVERA-Pop Opera live in Singapore||Orchard||From $98||6pm|
|Cinco De May; 18+||Cinco De Mayo||River Valley||Free||8pm|
|Cinco De May; 18+||Cinco De Mayo With Singapore Pub Crawl||Raffles Place||$33||7pm|
|Cinco De May; 18+||Cinco de Mayo FeasTa||Marina Boulevard||$20||5pm|
|Mental Wellness||Positive Psychology Day 2019||Orchard Road||$22||11am|
|Books||James Suresh @ Books Kinokuniya SG||Kinokuniya||Free||2pm|
|Tech||AI + IoT Day by CloudxLab and IoTSG||Singapore University of Social Sciences||Free||9am|
|Tech||Web Development for Beginners||Henderson||Free||10am|
|Cooking; Workshop||Put Down Your Books, and Let's Cook||Blossom Youth Centre||$10/class||5pm|
|Sports||BEDOK SOCCER GROUP||Kaki Bukit Community Centre||Free||8.30am|
|Sports||CheekieFitness Partner Yoga||Marina Bay||From $10||7.45am|
|Mental Wellness||Advance Care Planning||Tampines||Free||11am|
|05||Sunday||Environment||Coastal Clean Up: Sungei Seletar||Sungei Seletar||Free||4.30pm|
|06||Monday||Music||Nostalgic Melodies of Yesteryear with JOE & THE SOUL EXPRESS||Esplanade Recital Studio||$15||10.30am & 3pm|
|Social||Unblue your Monday||Cross Street||$50||For 32 Years old and above only|
|Fitness; Health||1-Day Fitness Pass||The Herencia||$20||9am|
|06 - 12||Festival||MOTHER’S DAY WEEK||Punggol||Free||11am - 8pm|
|07||Tuesday||Drink; 18+||Vitasoy Barista Challenge||Tampines||$18||3pm|
|Sports||IBC Sports - Basketball||Methodist Girl's School||Free||7pm|
|08||Wednesday||Music||Alex Hutchings Tubeology Clinic||The Substation||$21||7.30pm|
|Marketing; Workshop||Social Media Marketing World||M38 @ Jalan Pemimpin||Free||7pm|
|Panel Discussion||CSA APAC Summit 2019||Eunos||Free||8.30am|
|09||Thursday||Drink; 18+||Almaza Beer Pairing Event||Church Street||$53||6.30pm|
|Sports||IBC Sports - Fishing||TBC||Free||5am|
|Sports||IBC Sports - Cycling||King's Road||Free||6am|
|09 - 12||Family; Puppet Show||ELMER THE PATCHWORK ELEPHANT SHOW||KC Arts Centre||From $42||Various Showtimes|
|10||Friday||Concert||ORIENTAL STRINGS||Victoria Concert Hall||From $23||7.30pm|
|Concert||MISSA SOLEMNIS · MASAAKI SUZUKI||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $25||7.30pm|
|Social; Food||Meet over Dinner||Jurong||$48||7pm|
|Keynote Session||What You Need to Know About Freelancing in Photography.||Selegie Road||Free||7pm|
|10 - 11||Dance||SIDES 2019||SOTA Studio Theatre||$30||Various Showtimes|
|10 - 18||Festival; Drink||Singapore Cocktail Festival 2019||Empress Lawns||From $35||!8+|
|10 - 19||Film Festival||European Union Film Festival||National Gallery Singapore||$12||Various Showtimes|
|11||Saturday||Concert||Jason Mraz: Good Vibes 2019||The Star Theatre||From $98||8pm|
|Concert||Jordan Chan Stop Angry Tour In Singapore 陈小春 Stop Angry 巡回演唱会新加坡站||Resorts World Convention Centre||From $88||8pm|
|Workshop; Art||Family Art Workshop||National Gallery Singaproe||From $20||1.30pm - 3pm|
|Music; Social||Music Bingoi!||Hollandse Club||$27||8.30pm - 12.30am|
|Music||Cruising Reggae Beats Party||Deutschlander||Free||10pm - 3am|
|Movie; Food||Afternoon Tea and Movie||Suntec City||$49||2.30pm|
|Social; Food||Bond Over Lunch||Buona Vista||$45||12.30pm|
|Social; Food||CLASSIC DATING WESTERN DINNER||Suntec City||$49||6.30pm; Over 30 years old only|
|Art; Workshop||AGAVE ACRYLIC PAINTING WORKSHOP||Gardens by the Bay||$30||3pm - 5pm|
|Family; Tech||Microthon 2019||IDEAS Hub||Free||9am|
|11 & 12||Food; Market||Sprout 2019||Suntec Singapore Convention||Free||10am - 8pm|
|Concert||Katya: Help Me I'm Dying - Live in Singapore||Shine Auditorium||From $88||8pm|
|Concert||SSO MOTHER'S DAY CONCERT||Singapore Botanic Gardens||Free||6pm|
|Drink; 18+||Saturday Beer Club||Orchard Centre||$55||3pm|
|Workshop||“Make-Your-Own” Blooming Tea||Suntec Convention Centre||$38||3.30pm|
|Entrepreneur||PAK Challenge 2019 Finals||SMU||Free||2.30pm|
|13||Monday||Concert||Ding Yi Special Season Pass 2019 鼎艺团乐季特惠票||Various||$62||Various Showtimes|
|13 & 15||Concert||Esplanade Presents Mosaic Music Series||Esplanade||From $ 35||8pm|
|14||Tuesday||Workshop||Moms in Business||Jalan Permimpin||Free||10.30am; Other dates available|
|15||Wednesday||Sports||IBC Sports - Golf||Various||Free||1pm|
|15 - 26||Theatre||Civilised||Various||Various||Rated R18; Various timings|
|16 May . 2 Jun||Art Festival||Singapore International Festival of Arts||Esplanade Theatre||Various||Various Showtimes|
|17||Friday||Concert||Guftagoo with Gulzar||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $50||8pm|
|Seminar||Limestone Hills in Peninsular Malaysia - to conserve or exploit||Botanic Gardens||Free||4pm - 5pm|
|Music||Visages||School of the Arts||Free||7pm|
|17 - 20||Concert Series||SSO Chamber Music Season||Victoria Concert Hall||$20||Various Showtimes|
|18||Saturday||Concert||KINGDOM HEARTS Orchestra –World of Tres–||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $109||8pm|
|Art; Nature||Nature Sketching in the Gardens||Botanic Gardens||Free||9am|
|Workshop||Turning IDEAS into Income||A Good Space||$22||10am|
|19||Sunday||Health||CVD & Hypertension/Hypotension||Bartley Residences||Free||3pm|
|20||Monday||Concert||IF WITH ALL YOUR HEARTS||Victoria Concert Hall||Free||12.30pm|
|21||Tuesday||Music; Tour||Victoria Concert Hall Open House||Victoria Concert Hall||Free||8.30am onwards|
|Panel Discussion; Tech||How to Rapidly Build a Successful Technology Team||Anson 79||Free||7pm|
|22||Wednesday||Concert||SYMPHONY OF VOICES 2019||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $15||7.30pm|
|23||Thursday||Workshop; Health||CERT First Aider Course||Woodlands||Free||9am|
|Business Seminar||Key Market Events and The Road to Forex||Raffles City||Free||7pm|
|23 & 24||Tech||Echelon Asia Summit 2019||Singapore Expo||From $10||9am|
|24||Friday||Drink; 18+||Organic Wines from French Vineyards||Nepal Park||$45||7pm - 9.30pm|
|Art; Fashion||Fashion meets Art||F1 Pit Building||Free||7.30pm|
|25||Saturday||Festival||AIA GLOW FESTIVAL||Sentosa||From $73||7pm - 11pm|
|Concert||NOOR: Sounds of Sufi with Harshdeep Kaur and Javed Ali||Esplanade Concert Hall||From $35||8.15pm|
|Concert||SLO Children's Choir Concert: How Far I'll Go||Victoria Concert Hall||From $20||7.30pm|
|25 & 26||Tech||Short Course- Data Analytics Using Python||Victoria Street||$600||9am - 6pm|
|Nature||Festival of Biodiversity 2019||HDB Hub||10.30am - 10.30pm|
|Mental Wellness||RevOILution Wellness Expo 2019||Marina Bay Sands Expo||Free||9am - 7pm|
|25 May - 4 Jun||Festival||Esplanade presents Flipside||Various||From $20||Various Showtimes|
|26||Sunday||Concert||SONG BRIDGES||Victoria Concert Hall||$20||4pm|
|27||Monday||Workshop||The Science of Healthy Hair||Orchard||Free||7.30pm|
|29||Wednesday||Sports||MBC Fun Walk & Race||Mapletree Business City||Free||4pm|
|30||Thursday||Concert||26th Singapore International Piano Festival - Sa Chen||Victoria Concert Hall||From $20||7.30pm|
|30 May - 2 Jun||Family||Peter and Blue Go Around The World Presented by Singapore Dance Theatre||Esplanade Theatre Studio||$30||11am & 2pm|
|31||Friday||Concert||26th Singapore International Piano Festival - Ronan O'Hora||Victoria Concert Hall||From $20||7.30pm|
|Festival||MOTHER'S DAY CELEBRATION||Killiney Exchange||$38||7pm|
|Family; Tech||Mod & Hack 3D Games||Bukit Timah Plaza||9.30am|
Sluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month.
More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. FAANG names, like Alphabet and Amazon, and blue chips from McDonald’s to Boeingand United Technologies are among the more than 130 companies reporting.
There is also some key economic data, including Friday’s second quarter GDP, which should show a slowing to 1.8% from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace, according to Refinitiv. On Thursday, durable goods are reported and will include an update on businesses investment. There are also existing home sales Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday and advance economic indicators Thursday.
But there will be no Fed speakers, after a parade of central bank officials in the past week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The most impactful comments, however, came Thursday from New York Fed President John Williams, who set off a debate about how much the Fed could cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting — 25 or 50 basis points.
Even as the New York Fed later said Williams comments were not about current policy, market pros took heed of his words about how central bankers should “act quickly.”
Fed dominates Fed officials do not speak publicly in the days ahead of policy meetings, but market pros will find plenty to debate. Fed funds futures were predicting a 43% chance of a 50 basis point cut in July, after shooting as high as 70% Thursday afternoon.
“For sure, the Fed is going to dominate for next week. I think we’ll get at least a 25 basis point cut. I’m thinking we’re not going to get 50 basis point cut...The Fed has been burned when it’s been bold,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust.
Roth said he believes the market is already pricing in a quarter-point cut, and he does not see the Fed’s rate cut as much of a longer-term catalyst for stocks. If it trims by a half percentage point, he expects just a short-term pop.
Economists believe the Fed will cut interest rates even though recent data has improved. That’s in part because Powell has stressed the Fed is focused on the global economic slowdown, trade wars and low inflation, and that it will do what it takes to keep the economy expanding.
“The only real catalyst that would really help the market would be if there was a trade deal with China,” Roth said. “I think the likelihood of that is less than > 10%. We’re very pessimistic on the possibility of a real deal with China prior to the [2020 presidential] election.”
So, in the void ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will be watching earnings. As earnings rolled out this past week, stocks took a rest from their record-setting streak, as some companies lowered forecasts and most beat earnings and revenue estimates.
As of Friday morning, 77% of the roughly 80 companies reporting had beaten earnings estimates, and 65% topped revenue forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Based on actual reports and forecasts, earnings per share for the S&P companies are expected to be up 1% in the second quarter. That is up from expectations that the profit growth would be slightly negative this quarter.
“If you look at the numbers, we’re above the averages for top and bottom line beats, but at the same time when you look at revisions, every day we’re getting revisions for third and fourth quarter, and they’re coming down.There’s a real worry of an earnings recession, when you get out into the third and fourth quarter and out to next year,” Roth said.
Roth said he’s currently neutral on risk assets, and he sees a slowdown brewing in the smallest U.S. companies that could spread up the food chain.
“We do see those fundamental cracks in the economy in small business and the small business labor market, and on top of that you have these big macro risks out there,” such as trade and the upcoming election, Roth said.
Slower economy As earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was under 2% since the first quarter of 2017. Economists are watching to see how consumer spending fared in the quarter, after a recent pickup and also whether business inventories are declining.
“The data we need is not Q2. What’s at risk is the growth and magnitude of the Fed rate cut. I don’t think Q2 is going to have much impact on the Fed’s thinking,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It’s really how Q3 is progressing. It seems to me the economy softened in April and May and picked up in June with jobs data, retail sales and manufacturing sector.”
Chandler said investors will also be focused on the European Central Bank, which some economists believe could cut its overnight deposit rate to negative 0.5% from negative 0.4% currently when it meets Thursday. Chandler said odds are about 50% for the rate cut, which many also expect in September.
“While we’re waiting for the Fed to figure out whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points, and we’re waiting for the ECB to get all its forms sorted out ... the emerging markets are pushing ahead,” said Chandler, noting Russia and Turkey could cut rates in the next several days, after similar moves in the past week by South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia.
“It just makes the story more global. You’re seeing the trade numbers from China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea weaken. You’re seeing exports form China suffer. Exports from all of Asia are suffering,” he said. “The big surprise for China and Japan has also been on the import side. The declines in their imports is really someone else’s [drop in] exports.”
Rate cuts and currency wars Dollar strength has been a consequence of the trade war, and Fed action could help turn it around.
“If the Fed fails to move, you’re going to end up with an increasingly stronger dollar,” which impacts corporate earnings, Roth said.
“The dollar is quite strong and is increasingly going to be a headwind for U.S. companies. It hasn’t appreciated that much in 12 months, but if we see a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world, you would see a carry trade develop where people would want to buy assets in the U.S.,” he said.
The dollar index was slightly higher on the week, but Wall Street has been focused on President Donald Trump’s negative comments on the currency’s strength. As Trump has criticized the Fed, he also complains that other central banks manipulate their currencies to give them an edge in trade. Trump has said the Fed should already be cutting rates, something it hasn’t done since December 2008.
A number of Wall Street strategists have said they now believe it is possible that the U.S. government could intervene to weaken the dollar, but that would be unlikely.
Small-caps measured by the performance of the Russell 2000 have been lagging since mid-March with the gap in performance widening in June and continuing into July. At yesterday’s close the Russell 2000 was up 15.35% year-to-date compared to a gain of 19.87% for the Russell 1000. Based upon historical trends this is not unusual for this time of the year nor during times when U.S. economic data is mixed.
In the following chart the one-year seasonal pattern of the Russell 2000/Russell 1000 has been plotted (solid black line with grey fill) along with 2019 year-to-date (blue line). This chart is similar to the chart found on page 110 of the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac. When the lines are rising small-caps are outperforming, when the lines are falling small-caps are lagging. Small-caps exhibited typical seasonal strength during the first quarter but have been fading ever since. In some years, small-cap strength can last until mid-June however, that is not the case this year. Going forward, small-cap underperformance is likely to persist until early in the fourth quarter with possible a hint of strength at the end of August.
It’s usually about this time of the year, when trading volumes begin to slump and markets meander that we begin to hear talk of the infamous “Summer Rally” featured on page 74 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019. The “Summer Rally” is usually the weakest seasonal rally of them all.
We looked at the current Summer Rally and found it to be above average already, up 10.2% from the Spring low on May 31, and that does portend well for the Summer and Fall Corrections. We lined up the Summer Rallies ranked from weakest to strongest since 1964. Over the past 55 years prior to this year DJIA has rallied and average of 9.1% from its May/June low until its Q3 high. The Fall Rally averages 10.9% and the Summer and Fall Corrections average a loss of just under 9% for a net average gain of a few percentage points over the summer and fall.
As shown in the table below, when the Summer Rally is greater than or equal to the 55-year 9.1% average, the summer and fall correction tend to be bit milder, -6.2% and -8.2%, respectively. Summer Rally gains beyond 12.5% historically had the smallest summer and fall corrections. One prominent exception being 1987.
Once again today, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new all-time highs. With today’s modest gains, DJIA is up 17.3% year-to-date. S&P 500 is even better at 20.2% while NASDAQ is still best at 24.5%. Compared to historical average performance in pre-election years at this time of the year, DJIA and S&P 500 are comfortably above average. NASDAQ’s impressive 24.5% gain is just average (since 1971). NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally delivered again, but officially ended last Friday. The seasonal pattern charts, above and below, along with July’s typical performance over the last 21 years suggest further gains during the balance of July and the third quarter could be limited. For the market to make meaningful gains in the near-term earnings will need to decent and forward guidance will also need to be firm.
Yesterday was another one of those days that makes you scratch your head. In a relatively busy day for economic data, Initial Jobless Claims came in within 25K of a 50-year low, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report saw its largest m/m increase in a decade. That follows other data last week where Retail Sales were very strong and CPI and PPI both came in ahead of consensus forecasts. The trend of better than expected data since the June employment report on July 5th is reflected in recent moves of the Citi Economic Surprise Index which has rallied from -68.3 up to -41.5. Granted, it’s still negative, but what was looking like a real dismal backdrop for the economy just three weeks ago seems to be showing signs of improvement.
In their respective interviews, both Williams and Clarida not only didn’t tone down expectations, but they added fuel to the fire. Williams noted that “it pays to act quickly to lower rates" and "vaccinate” the economy "against further ills." Clarida was even more direct when he said that “Research shows you act preemptively when you can.” In other words, the data-dependent Fed is casting the data aside and ready to move anyway. In his interview on Fox Business, Clarida almost got a chuckle when asked whether there was any chance the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in July.
The dovish turn from the Fed was immediately reflected in market expectations for rate policy at the July meeting. Back in June, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) cut at the next meeting peaked out at under 50%. Then, in the days following the June employment report, expectations dropped all the way down to 3%. In the last ten days, though, the trend has completely reversed, and as of yesterday’s close topped out at 71% versus just a 29% chance for a 25 bps cut. Probabilities for a 50 bps cut came in a bit overnight but are still at about 50/50. Yesterday alone, though, expectations for a 25 bps cut and a 50 bps cut more than completely reversed from the prior day, and remember, that’s after what was a good day of economic data! Can you imagine what expectations would be like if the data was actually bad?
The Bloomberg World index is a cap-weighted index made up of nearly 5,000 stocks from around the world (including US stocks). While the S&P 500 has been hitting new all-time highs over the last week, the Bloomberg World index remains 7% below highs that it last made back in January 2018.
The S&P 500 is up over 20% YTD, but over the last 12 months, it is up just under 10% on a total return basis. And within the S&P 1500, there are only 44 stocks that are up more than 50% on a total return basis over the last 12 months. These 44 stocks are listed below.
Innovative Industrials (IIPR) -- a cannabis REIT -- has been the best performing stock in the S&P 1500 over the last year with a total return of 302%. In second place is eHealth (EHTH) with a gain of 269%, followed by Avon Products (AVP) at +174.8% and Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE) at +128.58%. Coca-Cola Bottling is probably one of the last names you would have guessed as a top five performer over the last year! Other notables on the list of biggest winners include Advanced Micro (AMD), LendingTree (TREE), Starbucks (SBUX), AutoZone (AZO), Chipotle (CMG), Hershey (HSY), and Procter & Gamble (PG).
Some names that aren't on the list that you may have expected to see? AMZN, NFLX, MSFT? Nope. None of the mega-cap Tech companies are on the list of biggest winners due to serious weakness from this group in Q4 2018.
Although the last two trading days have seen exceptionally narrow daily ranges, today we wanted to take a quick look at the S&P 500's frequency of 2% daily moves (either up or down) in the post-WWII period. The chart below breaks out the frequency of 2% days by year, and years with more than 25 one-day moves of 2% are notated accordingly.
Overall, there have been an average of 11 daily 2% moves in a given year. After five straight years from 2007 to 2011 where we saw an above-average number of 2% days, the last seven years have only seen one year with an above-average number of occurrences (2018, 21). Remember, in 2017 there wasn't one single trading day that saw the S&P move up or down 2%!
So far this year, there have only been four 2% days, but with the most volatile part of the year on tap, we are likely to see that number increase in the months ahead. Don't expect the relative calm that we have seen in the last few trading days to last forever. Volatility is unpredictable and usually comes up and surprises you when you least expect it!
Monday 7.22.19 Before Market Open:
Monday 7.22.19 After Market Close:
Tuesday 7.23.19 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 7.23.19 After Market Close:
Wednesday 7.24.19 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 7.24.19 After Market Close:
Thursday 7.25.19 Before Market Open:
Thursday 7.25.19 After Market Close:
Friday 7.26.19 Before Market Open:
Friday 7.26.19 After Market Close:
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, July 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.29 per share on revenue of $62.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.34% with revenue increasing by 18.20%. Short interest has increased by 14.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,737.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,494 contracts of the $2,000.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $16.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.20% with revenue increasing by 24.33%. Short interest has increased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.8% above its 200 day moving average of $164.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 16,697 contracts of the $290.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.44) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 84.80% with revenue increasing by 59.41%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.1% below its 200 day moving average of $280.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 30,445 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters.
Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.89 per share on revenue of $20.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.24% with revenue decreasing by 16.44%. Short interest has increased by 11.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% above its 200 day moving average of $362.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,176 contracts of the $325.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
AT&T Corp. (T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.89 per share on revenue of $45.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.20% with revenue increasing by 15.48%. Short interest has increased by 16.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% above its 200 day moving average of $31.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 144,398 contracts of the $28.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $358.48 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.08) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $335.00 million to $360.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.09% with revenue increasing by 36.69%. Short interest has decreased by 3.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $10.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,449 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, July 26, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.1% move in recent quarters.
ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $14.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 33.33% with revenue increasing by 53.48%. Short interest has decreased by 8.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 63.8% below its 200 day moving average of $1.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 16.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.28% with revenue decreasing by 2.88%. Short interest has increased by 39.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 31.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.7% below its 200 day moving average of $29.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 9,264 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, July 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $828.49 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $770.00 million to $830.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 16.60%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% above its 200 day moving average of $33.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,151 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.7% move in recent quarters.
Visa Inc (V) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.33 per share on revenue of $5.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.83% with revenue increasing by 8.78%. Short interest has decreased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $150.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,839 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
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